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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The competition level will be through the roof in Nashville this week, as all 12 SEC teams will compete in the 51st annual conference tournament. On the line is an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and the majority of the teams in the league are well aware that their hopes of earning a ticket to the "Big Dance" depend solely on winning this event.
Kentucky has won more SEC Tournament titles than all of the other conference members combined, and the Wildcats enter this year's field as the top seed from the East Division. The Wildcats will attempt to capture their first crown since 2004, but they figure to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their finish in this event. The East Division is considerably stronger than the West, as it can be argued that the best four teams in the SEC all come from the East. Vanderbilt (E-2), Tennessee (E-3) and Florida (E-4) are all capable of knocking off Kentucky and winning this tournament. Vanderbilt and Tennessee have the necessary records to reach the NCAA Tournament without winning this league tourney. In regard to the West, even top-seeded Mississippi State has a shaky resume' and needs to cut down the nets in Nashville. The lone team in the field that has never won the SEC Tournament is South Carolina. The first round of this event begins on Thursday, as the third through sixth seeds in both divisions will be in action. The top two seeds in both divisions will open play on Friday, March 12th, in the quarterfinal round, and after semifinal action on Saturday, the championship game will be played on "Selection Sunday".
The first of four first-round games pits the Alabama Crimson Tide (W-4) against the South Carolina Gamecocks (E-5). Alabama has won this tournament six times, the second most in the league, but the last crown was captured way back in 1991. Still, the Tide is 57-43 in this event. South Carolina, as mentioned, is still in search of its first title, and the Gamecocks are 16-18 in SEC Tournament affairs. Alabama beat South Carolina by nine points in the only regular-season meeting between the teams. The Crimson Tide depend heavily on their defense to win games, as they are second in the conference in scoring defense (64.6 ppg). Mikhail Torrance (15.4 ppg, 5.3 apg) and JaMychal Green (14.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly the two best players on the roster for 'Bama. As for South Carolina, it possess the league's leading scorer in Devan Downey (22.6 ppg), and the senior is also handing out 3.5 apg. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks are last in the league in free-throw percentage, assists and rebounding margin.
Tennessee (E-3) and LSU (W-6) are slated to do battle on Thursday afternoon in what may be the most lopsided matchup of the first round. The Vols have won the SEC Tournament four times, but it has been 31 years since their last title. Last season, Tennessee reached the championship game, only to fall to Mississippi State in a 64-61 final. As for LSU, it captured its lone SEC crown back in 1980, so it can certainly relate to Tennessee's long wait for a championship. The Vols and Tigers played just once during the regular season, and Tennessee escaped Baton Rouge with a five-point win. The Vols own the second-best scoring margin in the SEC (+9.8 ppg), surprising considering the fact that they don't possess a single player ranked in the top 20 in the league in scoring. Tennessee is the top team in the conference when it comes to defending the three-point shot. As for LSU, it finished 2-14 versus SEC opponents during the regular season, but the team did close out the campaign with a victory and may enter this tournament with some confidence. Unfortunately, the Tigers completely lack depth and are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC (61.9 ppg) despite boasting two of the league's top 13 scorers, including Tasmin Mitchell (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg).
The Florida Gators (E-4), will do battle with Auburn (W-5) in the first round. A 20-win season used to assure teams from major conferences a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but teams are playing more games than ever, so Florida needs to play well in this event to punch its ticket to the "Big Dance". The Gators own a 32-41 all-time record in this event, but they captured three straight titles from 2005 through 2007, so the majority of their success has been recent. As for Auburn, it has struggled in the SEC Tournament, posting a 27-46 record, and the program's lone championship came back in 1985. The Gators beat the Tigers by eight points in the only meeting between the teams during the regular season. The fact that Florida is able to field a starting lineup with five double-digit scorers is impressive. The Gators are last in the league in blocked shots but tops in assist/turnover ratio. Auburn is the worst defensive team in the SEC, allowing 74.0 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting by opponents. The Tigers possess the sixth and seventh ranked scorers in the league in DeWayne Reed (16.1 ppg) and Tay Waller (15.9 ppg).
Rounding out the pairings in the first round will be the Arkansas Razorbacks (W-3) and the Georgia Bulldogs (E-6). Arkansas is 20-17 all-time in this event and won its lone title back in 2000. As for Georgia, it has two championships to its credit, the most recent of which was earned in 2008. The Razorbacks beat the Bulldogs by four points on the road in the only regular-season meeting between the clubs. Arkansas is ranked 11th out of 12 SEC teams in scoring defense, and the team is last in three-point percentage defense. Rotnei Clarke leads the Razorbacks with 15.5 ppg, and Marshawn Powell is close behind with 15.1 ppg. Georgia's top performer is Trey Thompkins (17.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who ranks second in the SEC in scoring and fourth in rebounding. His Bulldogs are 11th in scoring margin among conference teams, however, and they are last in turnover margin.
The winner of the South Carolina/Alabama matchup will advance to the quarterfinal round to face Kentucky. The Wildcats have won this event 25 times and own a 111-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky leads the conference in many statistical categories, including scoring offense (79.9 ppg), scoring margin (+14.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.478), field goal percentage defense (.382), rebounding margin (+9.1 rpg) and assists (14.9 apg). Freshman sensation John Wall is averaging 17.0 ppg to go along with a league-best 6.2 apg, and fellow rookie star DeMarcus Cousins checks in with 15.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Don't forget about Patrick Patterson and his 15.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg.
The second quarterfinal game to be played on Friday pits the Ole Miss Rebels (W-2) against either LSU or Tennessee. Ole Miss won its only SEC championship in 1981, and the team's 23-46 conference record is far from impressive. Rebels' standout guard Chris Warren ranks third in the SEC in scoring with 17.2 ppg and ninth in assists (3.4 apg). Ole Miss is second in the league in scoring with 78.4 ppg, and the team shoots the ball efficiently from three- point range. The Rebels are second in assist/turnover ratio and have the talent in place to make a run in this event.
Mississippi State (W-1) awaits the winner of the Auburn/Florida matchup, and that quarterfinal matchup figures to be competitive regardless of the pairing. MSU is the defending champion of this event as mentioned, and the program has three titles to its credit. Still, its 25-46 record at this event all-time is poor. The man to watch for the Bulldogs is star forward/center Jarvis Varnado, who recently became the NCAA's all-time leader in blocked shots. In addition to his 4.8 rejections per outing, Varnado also paces the conference in rebounding (10.6 ppg) and is scoring 13.5 ppg as well. Mississippi State is the best defensive team in the league in regard to scoring defense (64.4 ppg), and the club is limiting opponents to 38.4 percent shooting from the field. Dee Bost is a tremendous distributor at point guard who ranks second in the SEC in assists (5.4 apg).
The Vanderbilt Commodores (W-2) will play either Georgia or Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Vandy's lone SEC Tournament title was earned way back in 1951, by far the longest drought of any of the teams that have won the crown. The Commodores are 29-47 in the event, but this year's team is one of the best in recent memory. Vanderbilt is the best free-throw shooting team in the conference, and that asset could certainly prove critical in close tournament games. While the Commodores do lack the type of player capable of taking a game over at the offensive end, there are three double-digit scorers in the fold. Jermaine Beal (14.7 ppg), A.J. Ogilvy (13.9 ppg) and Jeffery Taylor (13.9 ppg) provide plenty of balance to the lineup.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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