Bears Might Stand Between Pack, Postseason

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's official. This Roger Goodell guy is a genius.

But it's not because the league's new "flex scheduling" plan allowed him to slot Brett Favre in the weekend's NBC spotlight for what could be the final game of his career, while simultaneously saving Pink from waxing sexily over another edition of the flaccid Browns-Texans AFC blood feud.

Because in reality, as the nation is thanking the new commish and collectively reaching for its cheese-scented Kleenex while pondering gridiron life without the "will he retire, won't he retire" soap opera, Goodell and his fellow league big shots will actually be in New York trying to derive meaning from the most convoluted of playoff pictures.

Though left for dead early in the season after a 1-4 start and even further dismissed after a three-game mid-Fall losing streak dropped them to 4-8, Favre and his Green Bay mates actually enter the final game of the season with a chance to advance their quarterback's assumed-to-be-ending career beyond Sunday's fourth quarter at Soldier Field.

But rather than the traditional "a win gets this team in, a loss gets this one in" scenario to assign the NFC's final postseason berth, the topsy-turvy 2006 schedule has created a schematic in which archaic phrases like "strength of victory" have been chipped out of the ice to try and create separation between the five teams still in contention.

The Packers, winners of three straight since an inglorious 28-point pasting by the New York Jets on Dec. 3 at Lambeau Field, can jump from conference slot No. 7 to No. 6 - now held by the New York Giants - and reach the promised land of January competition with the exact construction of any of five positive weekend blueprints.

A Green Bay win over Chicago and a Giants loss to Washington on Saturday are the common thread in three of the five scenarios, though each would nonetheless require an additional step - 1) a St. Louis loss or tie, or 2) a Carolina win, or 3) an Atlanta win, respectively - for the Packers to advance.

An improbable Green Bay tie coupled with a Giants loss would necessitate a Rams loss, a Falcons loss or tie and a Panthers loss or tie to give Favre another week; while wins by both the Packers and the Giants would trigger the strength of victory clause that would break the 8-8 tie in Wisconsin's favor with eight other fortuitous NFL results.

And somewhere, a computer geek is smiling.

Meanwhile for the 13-2 Bears, who clinched home-field advantage throughout their stay in the playoffs with last week's 26-21 defeat of Detroit - their fourth win in a row, by the way - the script for Week 17 takes far less memorization.

"We want to finish out the season with another victory," wide receiver Rashied Davis said. "That's it."

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago holds an 87-78-6 advantage in the series, which dates back to the 1921 season, and has a three-game winning streak over the Packers. The Bears were 26-0 road winners when the teams met in Week 1, and also swept the 2005 home- and-home. Green Bay's last win in the series was a 31-14 triumph at Soldier Field in 2004. The Bears were 19-7 victors when the two faced off at Soldier Field last season. Chicago has not won four straight games against Green Bay since it took five consecutive in 1990-92.

For all their storied history together, the teams have met just once in the postseason, a 33-14 Bears victory in a 1941 NFL Playoff.

Chicago's Lovie Smith is 4-1 versus the Packers as a head coach, while Green Bay's Mike McCarthy is 0-1 against both Smith and Chicago.

BEARS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE

The question this week will be exactly what balance the Bears' sideline bosses decide to strike between winning this game and staying healthy for the ones that matter next month.

Much-maligned quarterback Rex Grossman, a winner in 17 of his 22 career starts in the NFL, completed 20 of 36 passes over three quarters last week against the Lions before sitting out the fourth while backup Brian Griese led the team on a come-from-behind scoring drive.

Griese, in his limited duty, completed six of nine passes for 51 yards.

Also exiting the game along with Grossman were No. 1 running back Thomas Jones and premier wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad.

"No players ever want to come out of the game," Smith said. "They want to play the entire time. The game was on the line, but the plan in my mind coming in was to let Rex at least get into the third quarter and then from there, well, you saw the guys we took out there then. We took out 'Moose.' We took out Thomas. We wanted to do that a little bit without messing up the chemistry of the team, and I think we were able to do that."

If the aforementioned trio again sees only limited duty, the Packers will see a second-string featuring former Tampa Bay starter Griese - who's completed 13 of 17 passes for 96 yards this season - along with ex-No. 1 draft pick Cedric Benson (144 carries, 538 yards, six touchdowns) and big play wideout Bernard Berrian (50 catches, 758 yards, six touchdowns).

For the season, the Bears are 13th in the league in total yardage, having averaged 325.5 yards per game. Their rushing attack is 15th overall at 118.9 yards per game, while the Grossman/Griese pair is 13th with a weekly output of 206.7 yards.

Green Bay is 13th overall defensively (321.2 yards per game) and is highlighted by reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week Aaron Kampman, who won the honor for the second time this season with his three sacks, four QB hurries and seven tackles in the Packers' 9-7 defeat of Minnesota.

Kampman, a fifth-year man from Iowa, has a career-high 15.5 sacks on the season, tying him for the NFL lead and prompting his selection to February's Pro Bowl.

Defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has six sacks in his last four games against the Bears, including a career-best four in a January 2005 game. Elsewhere, cornerback Charles Woodson had two interceptions and a fumble recovery in his last game at Chicago.

Woodson's seven interceptions are first in the NFC.

PACKERS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

If it's indeed the last dance for Favre, the ex-MVP exits with a 2006 stat sheet that's either impressive or suspect - depending on where you look.

The veteran's 3,600 passing yards have contributed to Green Bay's 234.6 yards per game through the air, good for eighth in the league and largely responsible for Pro Bowl wideout Donald Driver's team-best 89 catches for 1,272 yards and seven touchdowns.

However, Favre has also thrown 17 interceptions to go with his 17 TDs, contributing to the Packers' minus-5 turnover ratio.

December has been the gunslinger's trademark month in his career, yielding a 48-18 mark in 66 starts on or after Dec. 1. In addition, he is 21-8 lifetime against the Bears, a winning percentage of 72.4.

Ahman Green is just 12 yards away from reaching 1,000 for the sixth time in his career, which would eclipse the franchise mark he now shares with Hall of Famer Jim Taylor. As a team, the Packers have averaged 104.4 yards on the ground, good for 23rd in the NFL.

Green has also caught 42 passes for 334 yards and one TD, to go with his five rushing scores.

Driver and Green were both listed as probable on the team's Wednesday injury report, nursing shoulder and knee problems, respectively.

Chicago's stingy defense, like its offense, will depend largely on who plays and how much.

Cornerback Charles Tillman (back) and linebacker Leon Joe (hamstring) are listed as questionable, with Tillman missing practice. The team is already without fearsome lineman Tommie Harris, who is out for the season with his own hamstring injury.

The Bears are fifth overall and first in the NFC in total yardage allowed with a weekly clip of 288.9 yards, though they've been looked at more closely recently after allowing 27, 31 and 21 points in three straight games following an early season in which only two foes exceeded 20.

As a unit, they've not allowed a touchdown to Favre in three straight games, a stretch during which they've snatched eight interceptions.

Linebacker Brian Urlacher was named to his sixth Pro Bowl, becoming the first Bear since Hall of Famer Mike Singletary to reach that frequency. Also, rookie cornerback/kick returner Devin Hester will accompany Urlacher to Hawaii after six touchdown returns through 15 games.

Hester had an 84-yard punt return for a score against the Packers in September.

Rookie Mark Anderson leads the team with 12 sacks, which is tied for third in the NFC, while Ricky Manning Jr. and Tillman share the team lead with five interceptions.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

As much as "trap game" gets overused in the early stages of the NFL season, this week will mark the drastic over-flooding of the "one team has more to play for" logic that traditionally permeates schedule-closing games.

Here, however, it might very well apply.

On a level playing field, as September's result suggests, the Bears are a far better team. In December and securely in "keep everyone from getting hurt" mode, though, the needle might just tip to the Green Bay side of things.

Whether the playoffs wind up hinging on the result or not, expect Favre to summon the magic for one last spotlight-grabbing performance - until he announces next summer that he's decided to come back and do it all over again one more time.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Packers 24, Bears 14

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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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