Bradley, U.S. soccer face tough questions

Soccer Betting Lines

06/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the wake of the U.S. national soccer team's disappointing 2-1 loss to Ghana in its FIFA World Cup round-of-16 match on Saturday, there has been a lot of talk about the future of head coach Bob Bradley.

Will he be the coach for the next World Cup cycle, or is it time to go in another direction?

First, the tough questions need to be asked.

Did the U.S. team reach its full potential in the tournament? Maybe.

You could argue no, given the way the bracket opened up for the team. But if England had taken care of its business as expected, the U.S. would have finished second in Group C and then faced Germany instead of Ghana in the second round. Would the perception of the team's failings be the same then?

Can Bradley take this team to the next level? Another maybe.

He showed he can adapt in both the Slovenia and Algeria games, bringing in a forward for a center back when his team needed a goal in the second half of both games. Can you ever recall Bruce Arena - the all-time wins leader in U.S. soccer history - make a substitution to open his team up in an effort to get a goal during his eight-year tenure? Me neither.

There is also no guarantee there even is another level. Until U.S. soccer is improved at the grassroots level, no coach on the planet is going to get the team to the top of the heap.

Did certain players who were counted on to be key contributors - Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore, Ricardo Clark, and the entire central defense, among others - come up short on a number of occasions over the past couple of weeks? You bet.

But how much of that falls on a coach instead of the players? Granted, it's the coach's job to get the most out of his players, but he shouldn't be responsible when Altidore and Dempsey repeatedly miss wide-open nets, or when the central defense tandem of Jay DeMerit and Carlos Bocanegra/Oguchi Onyewu lets players run right up the middle past them. It isn't like Bradley had better options on the bench.

That goes back to the grassroots failings, and the lack of a player pool to compete with the elite national teams.

Bradley did take the responsibility for Clark being on the field vs. Ghana, however. He admitted he made a mistake when he subbed the ineffective and mistake-prone midfielder out of the game after just over 30 minutes.

Is that mistake enough to cost Bradley a shot at another World Cup? Probably not, but that's a decision over which U.S. soccer president Sunil Gulati will have to deliberate.

So, did Bradley do enough to earn another cycle as the U.S. coach?

Yes. Stability is key at this point, with this player pool.

Until U.S. soccer has more to offer in terms of depth of talent, the sturdy and dependable Bradley is as good as it gets.

Iwonvegas Soccer Betting News

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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