Cutler, Broncos, Try to Sew Up Playoff Bid Vs. Niners

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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler is peering over the precipice of his first NFL playoff experience. By the time Denver takes the field on Sunday afternoon against the visiting San Francisco 49ers, the rookie may have already made his jump.

Thanks to the back-to-back wins that Cutler engineered over the Cardinals (37-20) and Bengals (24-23), victories that also qualify as his first and second as an NFL starter, the Broncos are poised to reach the postseason for the fourth straight year and the eighth time in 12 seasons under head coach Mike Shanahan. Should the 8-7 Chiefs fall to the Jaguars in an early afternoon game on Sunday, the Broncos will have clinched an AFC Wild Card berth, and irrespective of the result of the Kansas City/Jacksonville game, Denver can lock up the No. 5 seed in the conference with a victory over the Niners.

The Broncos are certain to play a first-round road game if they reach the postseason, with a trip to New England, Indianapolis, or Baltimore likely in the franchise's near future.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is resigned to play the role of spoiler. The 49ers forfeited their chance at a first postseason trip since 2002 last Sunday, when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals (26-20). The defeat clinched the Niners' fourth consecutive losing season, which matches the longest such streak in franchise history. San Francisco suffered through four straight sub-.500 campaigns from 1977 to 1980, just prior to an extraordinarily successful run that saw the organization make 12 playoff appearances and win five Super Bowls in a 14-year period that spanned 1981 to 1994

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos lead the all-time regular season series with the 49ers, 6-4, and have won each of the last two head-to-head meetings. Denver was a 24-14 winner when the teams last did battle, at Monster Park in 2002, and also took the last recent matchup in the Mile High City, a 38-9 triumph in 2000. San Francisco's last win in the series took place at home in 1997. The Niners are 0-3 in Denver since scoring their only win there in 1973.

The most memorable meeting between the teams was Super Bowl XXIV in New Orleans, won by the 49ers, 55-10, in a game that remains the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Shanahan is 3-1 all-time against San Francisco, for which he served as offensive coordinator from 1992 through 1994, including 2-1 since coming to the Broncos in 1995. The 49ers' Mike Nolan will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.

49ERS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

High on the 49ers' list of directives for Sunday's game will be handing the ball to running back Frank Gore (1542 rushing yards, 59 receptions, 9 TD), who enters Week 17 needing just 29 ground yards to break the franchise single- season record of 1,570, recorded by Garrison Hearst in 1998. Gore was held to just 51 yards on 11 rushes during a frustrating afternoon against Arizona last week, though he did manage his eighth and ninth touchdowns of the year and also contributed six catches for 35 yards out of the backfield. The Miami- Florida product, who is headed to his first career Pro Bowl, has eight 100- yard games to his credit this season. Maurice Hicks (82 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 1 TD) was the only other San Francisco player with a touch against the Cardinals, and his lone carry netted minus-two yards. The Niners are seventh in the league in rushing offense (132.2 yards per game), and second in yards per carry (5.0).

Gore's push for the franchise rushing mark will be made easier this week if middle linebacker Al Wilson (101 tackles, 1 sack), who is listed as questionable with a sore lower back, is unable to suit up. Wilson, who leads Denver in tackles, was present last Sunday when the Bengals' Rudi Johnson amassed 129 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries in snowy conditions. Wilson logged six stops in the game, and fellow LB Ian Gold (78 tackles) had a quiet day with three tackles. Up front, end/tackle Ebenezer Ekuban (58 tackles, 6.5 sacks) had a huge game, finishing with a season-high eight tackles and notching the fourth sack in his last six outings. Ekuban and fellow interior linemen Michael Myers (52 tackles, 2 sacks) and Gerard Warren (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) are at the front of a defense that ranks 11th in NFL rushing defense (108.3 yards per game).

Among San Francisco's most prominent offseason needs will have to be receiving help, which was in precious little supply in last week's loss to Arizona. Missing for the Niners' most crucial game of the season to date was supposed No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3 TD), who was suspended for four games following a violation of the league's substance abuse policy. Without him, Arnaz Battle (55 receptions, 3 TD) was quarterback Alex Smith's only reliable outside receiving target, with Battle catching seven passes for a respectable 55 yards. Also making his presence felt was rookie tight end Vernon Davis (17 receptions, 3 TD), who caught four balls for a season-high 91 yards in a losing effort. Bryan Gilmore (7 receptions, 1 TD), who started in place of Bryant, came up small without a catch. Smith (2696 passing yards, 15 TD, 15 INT) was 18-of-29 for 190 yards with an interception and four sacks absorbed on the day, lowering his season passer rating to 75.2. San Francisco is 28th in NFL passing offense (167.8 yards per game) heading into Sunday.

Smith will want to steer well clear of a Denver secondary that was instrumental in last week's key victory over Cincinnati. Cornerback Champ Bailey (81 tackles) logged his NFL-leading ninth interception of the year off of Carson Palmer, also contributing a fumble recovery; fellow CB Darrent Williams (83 tackles, 4 INT) had a pick and a forced fumble; strong safety John Lynch (75 tackles) registered seven tackles and a forced fumble of his own; and strong safety Domonique Foxworth (58 tackles, 1 INT) posted a game- high 14 tackles and yet another forced fumble. A hot-and-cold pass rush managed just two sacks of Palmer all day, one of which went to starting end Kenard Lang (33 tackles, 6 sacks). Situational rookie Elvis Dumervil continues to lead the team in sacks with eight. Denver is 23rd in the league versus the pass (215.6 yards per game), and tied for 19th in sacks (31).

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE

Cutler (771 passing yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has shown immediate playmaking ability for Denver, throwing two touchdown passes in each of his first four starts and spreading the ball to a number of different targets along the way. Cutler was 12-of-23 for 179 yards with two TDs and a pick in the win over Cincinnati, with his scoring strikes going to tight end Tony Scheffler (15 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Javon Walker (65 receptions, 8 TD), while No. 3 receiver Brandon Marshall (18 receptions, 2 TD) contributed a team-high four catches for 55 yards to the win. The rookie Scheffler has all three of his NFL touchdown receptions during Cutler's four-game stint as starter, and fellow greenhorn Marshall has posted his two highest receiving totals of the year over that stretch as well. Walker continues to lead Denver in grabs, receiving yards (1059), and TD catches. Veteran Rod Smith (47 receptions, 3 TD) was held to one reception for five yards against the Bengals. The Broncos line has allowed 28 sacks on the year, including 11 of Cutler.

Rattling Cutler could be a problem for a 49ers defense that is just 27th in the league versus aerial attacks (224.1 yards per game), tied for 19th in sacks (31), and had little answer for Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner on a 267- yard passing day for Arizona last Sunday. The 49ers failed to force a single turnover from the Cardinal offense, a trend that the likes of cornerback Walt Harris (56 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) and strong safety Keith Lewis (72 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be trying to reverse in Denver. Harris and Lewis are 1-2 on the team in interceptions, but neither has reached the INT column in their team's past five games. Reserve end Roderick Green (12 tackles, 4.5 sacks) had the Niners' only two sacks against Arizona last Sunday, and moved closer to linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) for the team lead in that category with the effort.

Poised to cross the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time in his career is Broncos running back Tatum Bell (977 rushing yards, 2 TD, 21 receptions), who is just 23 yards shy of four digits for the year. Bell has five 100-yard games to his credit this season, and though he lost a fumble last week, helped move the chains with 50 yards on 12 carries in the Cincinnati win. Namesake and rookie Mike Bell (611 rushing yards, 8 TD, 17 receptions) has been the hotter player over the past two weeks, compiling 130 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts in the pair of victories. The duo, which has allowed Denver to rank sixth in NFL rushing offense (135.8 yards per game) on the year, is expected to continue to split time this week.

The Bells will be attacking a San Francisco run defense that ranks a middle- of-the-pack 19th in NFL rushing defense (121.4 yards per game), and has given up a bloated 18 touchdowns on the ground this season. Just one week after shutting down the Seahawks' Shaun Alexander in a huge Week 15 win, the 49ers allowed Arizona's Edgerrin James to eclipse the 100-yard plateau last week. James' triple-digit day didn't come without a huge amount of resistance from defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks), whose eight tackles in his first-ever start were a career-high. Fellow lineman Marques Douglas (57 tackles, 3 sacks) chipped in with six stops in the loss. Moore (82 tackles) maintained his team lead in tackles with an 11-stop day, and fellow LB Hannibal Navies (16 tackles) contributed six tackles to the proceedings.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The 49ers have posted some unexpected wins during a season that has seen the franchise make marked improvement, but the Broncos are not a team against which San Francisco matches up particularly well. Smith and Gore are going to have trouble making consistent headway against a Denver defense that has playmakers in the secondary and can stop the run, and a less-than-threatening Niners front seven is going to struggle with Denver's zone-rushing scheme. And that's before you get into the elements, which in no way favor the mild- climate 49ers. Look for the Broncos to jump on the Niners early, and to keep them at arm's length thereafter.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Broncos 28, 49ers 10

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Online Sportsbook Football Betting

The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.

New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).

The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.

Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.

Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.

The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.

Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.

The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.

Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.

However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).

The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.

Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.

In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.

Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.

Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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