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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is hard to argue against the Philadelphia Phillies' acquisition of Houston righty Roy Oswalt, especially considering they received some money from the Astros and did not have to exercise his 2012 option.
In fact, it is an absolute no-brainer. I would give up prospects for a proven commodity every day and, unlike Anaheim plucking Dan Haren earlier in the week, this move does make the Phillies the favorites in not only the National League East, but the entire National League.
Plus they gave up nowhere near as much as the Angels had to surrender for Haren. J.A. Happ is not Joe Saunders and nobody Philly surrendered is as touted as Tyler Skaggs, who is going to be the player to be named later in that deal.
Oswalt would have been destroyed had he rejected this deal. I usually blow a gasket when players invoke their no-trade clauses rather than moving from a losing situation to a team in the playoff hunt. Derrek Lee just did it on Wednesday, turning down a deal to the Angels, but I can't get on him too much. He is as classy as they come, he loves playing for the Cubs and he already has a World Series ring with the Florida Marlins (2003).
Lee plays before a packed house at Wrigley Field every night, and while the Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs this year, they spend money and are always an offseason away from competing, particularly in a division that houses the likes of the Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Oswalt, on the other hand, would not have gotten a free pass. Houston has become baseball Siberia. It's clear that Philadelphia was not exactly his top choice, but pairing up with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels was too good a situation for him to turn down.
Would St. Louis have been a better fit for Oswalt? Probably. He seems like more of a St. Louis guy than a Philadelphian, and as a duo I would rather have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright than Halladay and Hamels pitching with me, but whether Oswalt likes it or not, the Astros were going to explore every road that led them to a deal out of their own division. There is no way Houston GM Ed Wade wanted to face him five times a year.
Oswalt does lead the National League in losses, though the sabermetricians will tell you that wins and losses are not an accurate barometer for a pitcher's success. In this case, I have to agree. Oswalt has pitched to a 3.42 earned run average in 20 starts to go along with a 1.11 WHIP, and has held the opposition to a .229 batting average. Not to mention he has received a total of four runs of support in his last six starts.
Run support is not going to be a problem in Philadelphia. In case you haven't noticed, the Phils have cranked it up at the plate in the last week or so. Heading into action on Wednesday, Philadelphia has won seven straight and now sits just 3 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division.
If there is anything that I have a problem with regarding the deal, it is that I don't necessarily think starting pitching was a problem for Charlie Manuel's club. It was the bats that put them in a hole. Now that the bats are coming alive again, the only real problem is the back-end bullpen, specifically closer Brad Lidge.
Lidge is an adventure every night. Lately he has been getting out of the jams he has put himself in, but I have no faith in him heading into the stretch run. And the problem is, there really are no other options from within. Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero are both competent, but seem to struggle when taken out of their current roles.
If Cole Hamels and Oswalt can follow Roy Halladay's lead and just throw nine innings every time out it won't be a problem, but we all know that is not going to happen. So either Lidge gets his act together soon, or this move amounts to very little come playoff time.
Of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the fact that the Phillies really wouldn't have had a need for a starting pitcher had Ruben Amaro just hung onto Cliff Lee this offseason.
I said at the time the move away from Lee made no sense. I would have non- tendered Joe Blanton and went for it with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Worry about next year, next year.
Still, I respect Amaro for making this Oswalt move. It is not often that a general manager admits to making a mistake. And make no mistake, he is admitting he was wrong with this move.
<< Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners headline Haskell
Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The two leading three-year-old colts in the
country top a field of eight for Sunday's $1 million Haskell Invitational at
Monmouth Park. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin At
Lucky w
<< Pena, Price lead Rays to sweep of Tigers
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Pena went 3-for-4 with a home
run and drove in all of Tampa Bay's runs, as the Rays completed a four-game
sweep of the Detroit Tigers with a 4-2 victory.
David Price picked up his AL-best
<< Orioles hire Showalter as manager
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have hired Buck
Showalter to be their next manager.
A press conference is scheduled for Monday and Showalter is expected to assume
his role as manager on August 3 to begin a s
<< Report: Oswalt agrees to waive no-trade clause
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston's Roy Oswalt has agreed to waive
his no-trade clause, according to multiple media reports, and will be dealt
from the Astros to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Comcast SportsNet in Philadelphia
Big South teams embrace playoff bid >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost everywhere you look, Liberty is
considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Big South football title this
fall.
The rest of the conference, however, has motivation that goes way beyond
feeling o
Rain wipes out Day 4 in Umag >>
Umag, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rain washed away Thursday's second-round
schedule at the clay-court Croatia Open.
Second-seeded French Open semifinalist Jurgen Melzer of Austria was scheduled
to face Czech Jan Hajek and third-seede
Howell's 64 leads Irish Open >>
Killarney, Ireland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England's David Howell fired a seven-
under 64 on Thursday to take the first-round lead at the Irish Open at
Killarney Golf & Fishing Club.
Richard Green and Damien McGrane both posted ro
Tseng and Hull lead Women's British Open >>
South Port, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yani Tseng and Katherine Hull both
posted rounds of four-under 68 on Thursday to share the first-round lead of
the Women's British Open at Royal Birkdale.
Tseng and Hull both eagled the last
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards
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