Patrick has much more to learn in NASCAR before her return

Autoracing Betting Lines

03/01/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danica-mania in NASCAR is over...for the time being, anyway.

The Nationwide Series received more attention than ever during the month of February due to the hype surrounding Danica Patrick's foray into stock car racing. Now, it's back to the same ole humdrum for NASCAR's second-tier series until Patrick returns in four months at New Hampshire.

Without question, Patrick's first three Nationwide races have been a learning curve, but there's plenty more for the 27-year-old to study during her stock car crash course.

Following a stellar performance in the February 6 ARCA race at Daytona, Patrick made her Nationwide debut one week earlier than expected. She finished 35th in the series' season-opener after getting caught up in a 12-car wreck just past the halfway point.

At California, Patrick finished the 300-mile race without incident, but fell three laps behind with a 31st-place result.

Patrick's run last Saturday at Las Vegas came to an end early when she made contact with Michael McDowell and then crashed into the wall on lap 85. Patrick sustained heavy damage to the front end of her car, as she retired with a 36th-place finish.

One thing Patrick has earned in her early stock car career so far is respect from her fellow competitors, particularly Las Vegas Nationwide race winner Kevin Harvick.

"Kevin Harvick was great actually," Patrick said. "Leading the race, he's telling me to go up high with him, so that was cool. I was able to run up high, and feel that line out, because he was giving me the finger out the window. That's really cool to see that, because the guy is leading the race and he's taking time to help me out."

Let's make sure we clarify the finger. Harvick did not display his middle finger as an inappropriate gesture towards her, but raised his left index finger to point her in the right direction on the track.

"I'll give anyone help if they ask," Harvick said after the race. "She's been very receptive on what she needs to do, and she's been very open on asking questions. I don't have any problem helping."

Patrick has a busy IndyCar schedule coming up, beginning with the March 14 inaugural race on the streets of Sao Paulo, Brazil. But Patrick won't be out of pocket with her JR Motorsports team during her Nationwide absence.

"We've put a lot of effort into these first three stock car races, but my ultimate goal is still to win the [Indianapolis] 500 and the IndyCar championship; that's the primary focus," she said. "It doesn't mean I'll lose touch with my team at JR Motorsports while I'm back in the IndyCar Series. I'll still stay in contact with [crew chief] Tony [Eury Jr.] and keep up with the guys as they get things prepared for my return in June."

In fact, additional stock car tests with JRM could be on her docket before she returns to Nationwide competition.

"I don't think that plan is completely set yet," Patrick said. "We have quite a few months to think about it, but with New Hampshire the first one that I have coming back to the season in June, I'm sure we'll try and replicate that track a little bit and try to go somewhere similar.

"I wouldn't mind if we tested all the time. I think the more I can drive the car the better."

Perhaps further testing should be in the cards for her.

Last week, Patrick spent time in both open-wheel and stock cars. She participated in an IndyCar pre-season open test at Barber Motorsports Park in Birmingham, AL before heading to Las Vegas. Patrick said the transition from one car to another was "circumstantial," but admitted her getting back into a stock car was an unpleasant experience at first.

"We lowered the steering wheel, and we brought it towards me, and we're trying to get it look more like the other drivers have it," she said. "I went out there, and I was freaking out, because it felt like I was driving on top of the car. I couldn't see the steering wheel, and I felt so uncomfortable."

Hopefully, that won't be the same problem when she arrives at New Hampshire.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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