Roughriders seek return to win column in clash with Tiger-Cats

Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No longer the last undefeated team in the CFL this season, the Saskatchewan Roughriders try to continue their recent dominance over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats when the two squads clash at Mosaic Stadium in Regina on Saturday.

The Roughriders, who erupted for 54 points during a season-opening, overtime win over Montreal, were limited to a season-low 20 points last weekend in their 20-point loss to Calgary on the road. For the first time this season, Saskatchewan failed to score the first points of the game and the team's defense completely broke down in the second half as it allowed 33 points.

Quarterback Darian Durant was held in check for much of the game, throwing his lone touchdown of the event late in the fourth quarter, once the outcome had already been decided. Durant finished the night 22-of-37 for 354 yards, but he was picked off three times and sacked twice.

Weston Dressler accounted for nine receptions for 125 yards, both of which were game highs. Running back Wes Cates added another 83 yards and a score on 16 rushing attempts.

As for the Tiger-Cats, they kept things close against Montreal in the first half last Thursday, but then Hamilton allowed the Alouettes into the end zone in the second half and that was too much to take in the 37-14 final at McGill Stadium. Quarterback Kevin Glenn hit 16-of-32 passes for 201 yards, but late in the meeting he was taken out in favor of Quinton Porter who converted 5- of-7 passes for 70 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while suffering a pair of sacks along the way.

The so-called rushing attack of the Ti-Cats was limited to only 49 yards on 14 attempts, with DeAndre Cobb gaining a team-best 25 yards on eight tries. Cobb has had some serious trouble gaining his footing early in the season, amassing a combined 137 yards on 39 attempts which means, of the league's top 30 runners after four games, Cobb has the worst average per carry (3.5 yards) by far.

As a group, Hamilton is the weakest rushing team in the league with only 71.5 ypg, gaining a full yard less per attempt than any other team in the CFL at the moment.

Needing Glenn to bounce back in order to give them a fighting chance this time around, the Tiger-Cats understand that their best offensive threat stems from Glenn in the pocket. The signal-caller has completed better than 65 percent of his attempts for close to 1,100 yards and has five touchdowns and just a single interception to his credit, the fewest miscues of any starter in the league right now.

Even though he had a sub-par game judging by his own standards, Durant is still the quarterback by which the rest of the league is measured through four games, at least in terms of his overall yardage which stands at 1,325 yards. Having completed close to 61 percent of his attempts thus far, Durant is tied for second in the league with eight touchdown throws.

Now in his fifth CFL season, Cates is on pace to have his most successful campaign now that he has 400 yards and three touchdowns through four games. Perhaps most impressive is his average of seven yards per attempt, although that's not an average that will stand up through all the bumps and bruises of an entire regular season. Nevertheless, the Roughriders as a team have been taking it to the rest of the league with their running game, averaging a CFL- best 178 ypg and an explosive 8.1 yards per attempt. Again, those numbers will not stand up over time, but at least for the moment opponents like Hamilton will have to guard against them.

Saskatchewan has won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Ti-Cats, although it was Hamilton that posted a 24-6 triumph in the most recent encounter last October 31 at home. As a result of that outcome, the all-time regular-season series is knotted at 36-36-4 dating back to 1950.

The Roughriders have won both of their home dates thus far in 2010, while Hamilton has come up empty in two road dates. The Tiger-Cats will serve as hosts for the only other meeting this year between the two clubs, slated for September 25.

Durant and Cates are as scary a one-two punch as there is in the league entering the fifth week of the season and if Hamilton eases up on one, expect the other to take advantage.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines

New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.

"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."

Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.

"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."

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